Morning note 19 03 2013

Equity Sales Trading
Baader Bank Sales Trading & Execution / Baader Bank Equities & Derivatives
Munich +49 89 5150 1870 / Frankfurt +49 69 1388 1355
Dow Jones
NASDAQ Composite
Bank shares led US stocks lower as investors weighed the odds Cyprus' bailout plan will lead to broader weakness in the euro-zone's financial system. The Dow fell more than 100 points at the start of the session, then briefly climbed into positive territory before turning lower in the final hour of trading (DJN) Is cutting about 300 jobs, extending a reorganization that included the shakeup of its (=) Blackrock
Blackstone Group LP is weighing a bid for Dell Inc., the computer maker seeking offers to rival the proposed $24.4bn buyout by its founder and Silver Lake Management LLC, said people familiar with the matter (BBG) Financial shares led declines across nine of the S&P 500's sectors, while the telecommunications group advanced. The SPDR Financial Select Sector exchange traded fund, which tracks shares in the industry, dropped 0.9%. MS fell 2.5%, while JPM was down 1%.z H-P added 2.9% after a broker raised its rating on the shares to "overweight," saying cuts to capital spending should boost the tech company's free cash flow. Palomar Medical Technologies jumped 4.4% after agreeing to a $294mn buyout by larger peer Cynosure. J.C. Penney climbed 6.2%, posting the biggest gain among S&P 500 components and trimming the shares' slide this year. An analyst said the department-store operator could boost its market value by subletting space in its top locations to other retailers (DJN) Hang Seng
Shanghai Comp B
Asian stocks rose, led by banks, with the benchmark regional index climbing after more than $500bn was wiped from global equity markets yesterday amid concern that Europe will plunge back into crisis (BBG) Mitsubishi UFJ Financial climbed 1.3% after Japan’s largest publicly traded lender yesterday fell by the most in eight months. Esprit Holdings Ltd., a Hong Kong- based clothier that counts Europe as its No. 1 market, gained 2.8%. Alacer Gold Corp. advanced 2.3% in Sydney as gold rose for a fourth day (BBG) Is developing a wristwatch as Asia’s biggest technology company races against Apple Inc. to (+) Samsung electronics
create a new industry of wearable devices that perform similar tasks as smartphones (BBG) Commodities
Brent Crude Oil Future
Gold Spot
Copper Future
Macro Events
Equity Sales Trading
Production wda(YoY) Industrial Production nsa(YoY) (=) Bayer
Balance Sheet Press
BMW, BDA Bank, Deutz, Elmos Semic., Porsche and Tom Tailor Conference
Current CEO Thomas Zinnoecker is leaving the company at his own request effective 15 (=) GSW Immobilien
April 2013 to explore new career ambitions. He will replaced by Dr. Bernd Kottmann. To issue bonus shares instead of dividend. Shareholders to get 1 new share per 10 old (=) Patrizia Immobilien
Watch out residential real-estate sector: Article in paper that Goldman and Blackstone plan to (=) Real Estate
reduce exposure in residential real-estate fig up to €5bn mentioned. A capital increase seems to become more likely (Handelsblatt). On top of the, so far, unsolved cash drain as long as Steel Americas is not sold, TKA is facing financial burden in an uncertain amount from the cartel issues (rails and flat steel). We would not completely rule out that the foundation, as the major shareholder who blocked every capital increase will change its mind; especially after they forced the head of the supervisory board, Mr. Cromme, to step down. – Some Ideas: The €1bn, mentioned in the Handelsblatt, could be reached with a 15% increase and a 25% discount on yesterday's closing price. TKA has 514.5mn (-) ThyssenKrupp
outstanding shares. If they go for a 10% increase with a 20% discount they can get ca.
€740mn. This could lift the equity ratio from ca. 11% to > 15%, before possible further write
downs on Steel Americas.
Conclusion: We see a rising risk for our recommendation as long as there is no deal
concerning steel Americas and a possible amount from the flat steel cartel issue is
completely unclear. We would not change our positive mid - to long term view on the
earnings perspective of the ongoing activities. (TKA, Buy, TP EUR 25).
Reported FY/12 fig on tape first glance: Sales € 629.7mn(€630mn) adj EBITDA €66,5mn (est (-) Tom Tailor
€67mn)recurring EBIT €34.1mn(vs. €27.8mn) Net €3.1mn(€6.9mn) - outlook: sees adj Ebit Margin of at least 12% ( heard 12,2 before) details at conf call (=) Schoeller-Bleckmann
Oilfield Equipment AG
Yday afternoon announced that the company won a RON30.9mn (~€8mn) order to upgrade a (=) Strabag
(=) Strabag II
Receives road building contract with a value of €136mn. The company will build part of a Equity Sales Trading
highway between Warsaw and Krakow. (Wirtschaftsblatt) EURO STOXX 50
Reported FY/12 earnings, gross premiums CHF6.74bn (est. CHF6.74bn), net profit CHF437mn (est. CHF428mn), combined ratio 94.1% (94.4%), new business margin (life) (+) Baloise
8.9%, dividend unchanged CHF4.50/shr (est. CHF4.50/shr) – outlook: Aims for combined ratio of 93% to 96% in non-life, seeks new business margin of 10%, ROE 8% to 12% Lawmakers in Cyprus are due to vote today on how to spread the burden among account- (=) Cyprus
10:30am CET: Spain to sell 91-day and 266 day bills 11:00am CET: Greece to sell €1bn 91-day bills Government Bond Auctions 12:00pm CET: Netherland to sell at least €5bn 2023 bonds.
12:30pm CET: ESM to sell up €2bn 192-day bills. (+) Iliad
Reported FY net income of 186.5mn vs. 161mn exp. Fitch downgraded several Italian banks. Among those are Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo, (-) Italian Banks
(=) Italian Earnings Reports Credito Valtellinese, Banca Carige, Popolare Milano
Reported FY/12 earnings, rev. CHF447mn vs. CHF346mn, Ebitda CHF275mn (est. (+) Partners Group
CHF262mn), net profit +27% to CHF257mn (est. CHF251mn), proposes dic. CHF6.25/shr (est. CHF6/shr) – outlook: Confirms expected demand of €4bn-€6bn in 2013. Holds CMD. Philips will present a strategy update on the group and the healthcare unit to (=) Philips
The company struck a deal with French unions over plans to reduce its headcount in the (=) PSA Peugeot Citroen
(=) Spanish Banks
The Bank of Spain will publish bad-loan data for January Reported FY12 profit -11% to CHF 316.3mn. The company plans to pay a dividend of (=) Swiss Prime Site
CHF3.60 a share (in-line with est.), and said the outlook for 2013 id favorable Is sued by ex-Chairman Marco Tronchetti Provera for “damage to his image” since leaving (=) Telecom Italia
STOXX 600 Sectors
Change in %
STOXX 600 Sectors
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Equity Sales Trading
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The information set forth in this document has been diligently compiled by us and is partially based on publicly available sources of third parties believed to be reliable. We do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such information of third parties. This document does not constitute investment advice, an investment recommendation, an invitation to submit an offer or a binding offer. This document is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis. This document was exclusively prepared for distribution to institutional investors. It is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a retail client. Transmission or reproduction of this document without prior written consent from Baader This document may include links to third-party websites or provide references thereto. Third-party websites are not under the control of Baader Bank AG and consequently Baader Bank AG does not assume any responsibility for the content of third-party websites or any further link in such


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