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C B R I C H A R D E L L I S
BI-MONTHLY RESEARCH REPORT OCTOBER 2008
The Office Market
While some office occupiers have put expansion and re-location plans on hold Prime Headline Office Rents
in light of economic conditions, other occupiers are finding it an opportune time to be concluding lease negotiations, considering the relative value on offer in the current climate. In stark contrast to the investment and development sectors of the Irish property market, transactional activity remains relatively healthy in the occupational markets. The most significant lettings signed in recent weeks include the letting of 14,000m2 to BCM Hanby Wallace Solicitors at No. 2 Grand Canal Square in Dublin Docklands and the letting of 5,774m2 to The Central Bank at Spencer Dock. Citco have agreed terms to lease 7,080m2 in The Brunel Building at Heuston South Quarter and Bank of Ireland’s headquarters requirement is still active, which will undoubtedly boost office take-up levels in coming months. While a small number of large lettings will sustain take-up in the capital in the short to medium term, it is evident that the volume of lettings generally will be considerably lower than in recent years with many occupiers choosing to remain in existing premises for the time being. Considering the economic backdrop and the fact that occupier demand is likely to weaken further, it is not surprising that some landlords have started to accept slightly lower headline quoting rents in addition to inducements such as rent-free periods and break options to secure lettings in their schemes. For further information contact James Mulhall in our Offices Department at james.mulhall@cbre.com or
Patricia Ward in our Global Corporate Services Department at patricia.ward@cbre.com
The Retail Market
The volume of retail sales in Ireland has declined by more than 5% year-on-year Prime Retail Zone A Rents
according to the Central Statistics Office. This retrenchment in consumer (Based on Transactional Evidence)
Grafton Street
spending is impacting on some areas of the retail property market. As the crisis in the financial markets continues, some retailers are finding it difficult to obtain funding to support expansion while others are putting plans on hold as they gear up for what promises to be a challenging Christmas trading season. There has been no discernible decline in rental values although some inducements are on offer to tenants concluding certain transactions in the current climate. In recent Retail Warehousing Rents
Blanchardstown
weeks, Homebase has opened a store in Portlaoise Retail Park; Next has opened a new unit at Monaghan Retail Park and TK Maxx has opened a new store in the Cornmarket Centre in Cork. At Dundrum Town Centre, 11 new retailers are due to commence trading shortly including Cath Kitson, Hughes & Hughes, Gant, Snow & Rock, Hamley’s and Elvery’s Sports while US retailer American Apparel is to open a unit on Grafton Street. South Dublin County Council has approved plans for Adamstown Central; Dublin City Council has approved plans to increase the size of The Jervis Centre while the Opera Centre in Limerick was granted planning recently. A major extension is also planned at The Pavilions scheme in Swords. An Bord Pleanála granted planning permission for the Northern Quarter development in Dublin city centre. However, Marks & Spencer were refused planning permission to open a unit in the Crescent Shopping Centre in Limerick while Clare County Council refused planning permission for a retail park in Ennis. Considering economic conditions, it is not surprising that a number of retail schemes are now being scaled back such as the Florentine Centre in Bray, Co. Wicklow. For further information contact Cormac Kennedy in our Retail Department at cormac.kennedy@cbre.com
The Industrial Market
There has been a notable decline in occupier demand in the industrial property market in recent months, which has come about as a direct consequence of weakening economic conditions and a lack of liquidity. The decline in the availability of bank funding, which has evolved as a result of the credit crisis, has had a particular impact on this sector considering that industrial occupiers traditionally tend to purchase their units. As in the office market, it is encouraging that there are a number of significant industrial requirements outstanding at present irrespective of the weak economic backdrop. These include a number of large requirements from self-storage companies and a requirement from a data centre provider for more than 10,000m2 of accommodation. Such large occupier requirements will ultimately sustain take-up levels in this sector as deals are agreed. However, the overall quantum of industrial requirements is down year-on year and as a result a number of proposed schemes are being put on hold in the current climate. Capital values are beginning to come under pressure in some locations. Although lease inducements have improved, headline rents in the industrial sector remain stable at approximately €130 per m2 in prime locations in Dublin. Transactions concluded in recent weeks include the letting of approximately 9,290m2 at Huntstown Business Park in Ballycoolin, Dublin 11 on a 25 year lease to Coca Cola; the sale of approximately 2,560m2 on a design-and-build basis at North West Business Park to Deli Meats; the letting of approximately 665m2 at Jamestown Business Centre in Finglas, Dublin 11 and the sale on a design-and-build basis of a unit of approximately 1,860m2 at North West Business Park which will be occupied by Ardex. Although lease negotiations are proving quite protracted in the current climate, we are confident that a steady level of industrial transactions will be concluded between now and For further information contact Garrett Mc Clean in our Industrial Department at garrett.mcclean@cbre.com
The Irish Investment Market
Only approximately €465 million of investment transactions were concluded in the Irish Prime Yields
market in the first nine months of 2008. The dearth of transactions relative to recent years is evidence of the lack of demand for investment properties in a market where bank funding has effectively dried up and where buyers remain cautious. This trend is being experienced across a number of European markets, although to date, the UK and Ireland have experienced the most significant yield movements. Despite a lack of transactional evidence, we believe that prime yields in Ireland have effectively increased by up to 200 basis points in all sectors over the last 12 months. We believe that prime retail high street yields are now approximately 4.5%; prime shopping centre and prime office yields are approximately 5.5% and prime retail warehouse and industrial yields are approximately 6.25%. The investment climate is very challenging and is likely to remain so until such time as liquidity improves. However, a small number of investors are now starting to express interest in purchasing assets. While current pricing levels may be challenged, we are optimistic that a number of investment transactions will be agreed over the coming months, both on and off market. There is a reasonable level of interest in the portfolio of properties being offered for sale by Irish Life, which is expected to realise in excess of €70 million. Sovereign wealth funds and international investors continue to seek out investment properties across Europe. However, despite the price correction that has occurred in the Irish market, the exorbitant 9% rate of stamp duty prevailing here is likely to prove a considerable barrier to such investors. This issue urgently needs to be addressed by Government in the forthcoming Budget. For further information contact Sean O’Brien or Colm Luddy in our Investment Department at sean.obrien@cbre.com or colm.luddy@cbre.com
The UK Investment Market
It is now more than 12 months since property values in the UK market first began to decline. Prime Yields
As we approach the final quarter of 2008, conditions in the UK investment market remain very challenging with yields in most sectors continuing to come under pressure. Considering the economic backdrop and ongoing turmoil in financial markets, it is difficult to foresee a stabilisation in UK property yields in the short term. Access to debt remains severely restricted and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future with many lenders seeking to reduce their exposure to the property sector. Some investors continue to seek investment opportunities in the UK, most notably German open-ended funds and private Middle Eastern investors but this demand is limited to prime assets in central London and key regional centres. In recent months, an Irish investor acquired a number of branches of Barclays Bank in London and a HSBC bank branch for more than £20 million, in a transaction which reportedly attracted an initial yield of approximately 6%. However, for the most part, Irish investors have been conducting very few transactions in the UK in recent months and are likely to invest no more than £1 billion in the UK in 2008, which equates to less than one fifth of the total spent in the UK by Irish investors last year. Many are critical of the recent decision to hold UK interest rates at 5.0% but the Bank of England remains pre-occupied with keeping a lid on inflation, despite stagnant economic conditions. The reality is that the UK investment market is likely to remain subdued until such time as liquidity improves in the debt markets and pricing stabilises. For further information please contact Andrew Gunne in our International Investment Department at andrew.gunne@cbre.com
The Development Land Market
Activity in the development land market remains very subdued with little transactional activity recorded in recent months. As the global financial crisis continues and conditions in the domestic economy and housing market show no immediate signs of recovery, lending institutions remain particularly cautious about this sector of the Irish property market. Considering the lack of bank funding available, there is only limited demand for the small number of sites being publicly offered for sale around the country. Diageo have recently announced the purchase of a 73 acre site in Leixlip, Co. Kildare for its new brewing facility. Discount retailers Aldi and Lidl, who are gaining market share in the current climate, continue to seek out development sites around the country and are reportedly looking for additional sites in some larger towns where they are already established. Tesco will shortly bring a number of undeveloped sites to the market in locations such as Fermoy, Cashel, Loughrea and Naas. Over the course of the coming months, we expect to see an increase in the number of sites being offered for sale as developers attempt to generate cash. We also expect to see an increase in distressed sales in this sector. Considering the value adjustment that has taken place during 2008, not surprisingly, there are a number of cash buyers watching this situation closely. For further information contact Wesley Rothwell in our Development Department at wesley.rothwell@cbre.com
The New Homes Market
The new homes market across the country has remained stagnant in recent weeks with little transactional activity recorded. While the economic backdrop is far from favourable, the key issue impacting on this sector, in our opinion, is that most potential purchasers are unable to secure the necessary finance to facilitate a house purchase. In an effort to address this, some developers recently introduced packages to provide interest-free loans to purchasers to help bridge the financing gap and stimulate activity in the housing market. However, would-be purchasers are now effectively postponing purchasing decisions until after the forthcoming Budget on October 14th. Many are expecting Government to introduce a package of measures on Budget Day to stimulate the housing market, similar to the £1 billion package introduced by the UK Government recently. It remains to be seen what the Irish Government will actually do but there is no doubt but that easing the supply of credit to enable purchasers to get onto the property ladder is vital, particularly considering the inventory of unsold housing stock that exists across the country. We still believe that up to 50,000 housing units will be completed in Ireland in 2008 but it would appear that our estimate of 35,000 new housing completions in 2009 now looks ambitious considering the economic backdrop and most recent new home registrations data. It is no consolation but similar housing market corrections are being experienced in the UK, the US and many parts of Europe at present. While the decline in construction activity in Ireland has had an extreme impact on economic performance and Government finances, the reality is that the situation would have been a lot worse had we kept building at the rapid pace of the last five years. For further information contact Olivia Sheridan in Gunne New Homes at olivia.sheridan@gunnenewhomes.ie
The Hotel Market
Quinlan Private’s recent sale of a 50% stake in its Jury’s Inn portfolio to an Oman Investment Fund has been deemed a vote of confidence for the hotel sector at a time when trading conditions remain challenging. Another significant transaction concluded recently was the Louis Fitzgerald purchase of the Parliament Hotel in Dublin city centre for approximately €20 million. However, against a tough economic backdrop, many hoteliers are coming under increasing pressure. An examiner has recently been appointed to a mixed-use development scheme at Edenderry, Co. Offaly, which includes a partially-built 4 star hotel. Meanwhile, receivers have been appointed to the 4 star Watermarque boutique hotel and spa in Cahirciveen, Co. Kerry and to the Park Inn Hotel & Carnbeg Golf Course in Dundalk, Co. Louth. Planning permission was granted for an extension to the Radisson SAS Royal Hotel at Golden Lane, Dublin 8; a 250 bedroom extension is planned at Citywest Hotel while Dublin City Council issued a positive decision for a new 290 bedroom hotel at Leeson Lane in Dublin 2, which has since been appealed to An Bord Pleanála. Planning permission was recently granted for an extension to U2’s Clarence Hotel on Wellington Quay and for the development of a new 180 bedroom hotel at Vicar Street, Dublin 8, which has also now been appealed to An Bord Pleanála. Radisson Hotel Dublin Airport received full planning for a 146-bedroom extension to its existing hotel and for the development of a new stand-alone limited services hotel on the grounds of Dublin Airport. Planners have rejected plans to develop a new 83 bedroom hotel in Cashel, Co. Tipperary while planning was also refused for a new 35 storey hotel at the National Convention Centre in Dublin Docklands. Outside of Ireland, Denis Mulryan’s West Hotel Group announced plans to open 11 new hotels in the UK over the next couple of years while Pat McCann’s recently re-branded Maldron Hotels plan to significantly grow their hotel group in the UK market. Meanwhile, Choice Hotels Ireland (which controls the Clarion chain) is reportedly planning expansion in the UK, Germany and Russia. A number of high-profile Irish hotel properties are currently being offered for sale and generating good interest including the 4 star Blarney Golf Resort on 168 acres which is guiding €20 million; the award-winning Sandhouse Hotel & Marine Spa at Rossknowlagh, Co. Donegal, which is guiding €6 million and the Ashford Court boutique hotel in Ennis, Co. Clare which is guiding €3 million. For further information contact Paul Collins or Dermot Curtin in our Hotels Department at paul.collins@cbre.com or dermot.curtin@cbre.com
The Dublin Pub Market
Despite the fact that the pub business is seen by many to be almost recession-proof, there have been very few licensed transactions concluded in the Dublin market in recent months with potential purchasers continuing to have difficulty in securing bank funding. It now appears that fewer than 10 pubs are likely to change hands in the capital in 2008, compared to 19 pub sales in Dublin last year. As we predicted earlier in the year, we are beginning to see a number of forced sales in this sector. Indeed, The Fairview Inn in Dublin 3, which changed hands recently for approximately €2.5 million, was sold on the instructions of a receiver. In addition to wider economic issues, a key concern for publicans in the current climate is the impact of recent changes to the licensing laws. Indeed, the popular Viper Room premises in Dublin city centre recently closed down, citing the new licensing law changes as being one of the key reasons why it was ceasing to trade. The reality is that the on-trade is now very heavily regulated while the off-trade has little regulation. Under the new Intoxicating Liquor Act, premises which previously held theatre licenses now have to formally apply for special exemption orders, which cost €410 per night. This is undoubtedly putting huge additional financial pressure on publicans at a time when many suppliers are increasing costs. In addition, excise duties are expected to increase further in the Budget on October 14th. There is also a lot of confusion about what is likely to be contained in the forthcoming Sale of Alcohol Bill. A number of good pubs are currently being advertised for sale including two newly-built licensed premises at Ongar in Dublin 15, which are for sale guiding €4 million and €3 million respectively; Ruaille Buaille at St. Stephen’s Green and Ba Mizu at the Powerscourt Centre in Dublin city centre; The Inn in Raheny, Dublin 5, which is guiding €3.6 million; the Horse & Hound in Artane, Dublin 5, which is being offered for sale guiding €3.25 million and McCormack’s in Balscadden, Balbriggan, Co. Dublin, which is guiding €2.5 million. Despite healthy demand for good pubs in prime locations, it will be challenging to conclude negotiations on any of these properties until such time as bank funding is more readily available. For further information contact John Ryan in our Licensed Department at john.ryan@cbre.com

Source: http://www.cbre.lu/ie_en/research/research_content/research_right_col/Property%20Commentary%20October%202008.pdf

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