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International Morning News
Wednesday, 14 July 2010
Market Commentary: U.S. stocks surged on Tuesday, extending the longest rally for the S&P 500 in 3 months, as improving outlook from Al-
coa bolstered confidence in the economy. Alcoa gained 1.2% as sales and profit exceeded analysts’ estimates and the company forecast
stronger global demand. Chevron led gains in energy companies, rising 1.9%. The 2nd largest U.S. energy producer forecast higher earnings
in Q2 compared with Q1. Separately, Chevron applied for a permit to explore for natural gas in shale deposits in northeastern Bulgaria near
the Romanian border. Moreover, American International Group rose 6.8%, the most in the S&P 500. The insurer’s board will likely decide to
sell its AIA unit in an initial public offering at a meeting scheduled this week, according to sources. Materials companies in the S&P 500 rose
2.2% as a group, and the financial, consumer discretionary, industrial, technology and energy groups also rose at least 1.2%. After the market
closed, Intel beat analyst estimates for Q2 sales and profit, reporting record sales. On the economic front, two Federal Reserve officials said
yesterday that the Central Bank has no plans to deploy additional tools for stimulating the economy and that the recovery is intact. In other
news, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $42.3bn in May, the highest level since November 2008, as a gain in imports outpaced
growth in exports, Commerce Department figures showed. The Dow Jones gained 1.44%, the S&P 500 rose 1.54% and the Nasdaq added
1.99%. European shares advanced for a 6th straight session and closed at a 3-week high on Tuesday after impressive results from some major
U.S. companies raised hopes for a strong regional quarterly earnings season. Sentiment was also boosted by a successful Greek treasury bill
auction, the country's 1st debt sale since a massive emergency loan backstop from the European Union and International Monetary Fund was
agreed in May. Elsewhere, sources told Reuters that preliminary results showed all of the German banks tested in the European stress test
were on track to pass, including the regional Landesbanken. The European Union is set to announce on July 23 how its banks would fare
under further adverse conditions, including a deeper fall in value of sovereign bonds, in a bid to boost market confidence damaged by the
Greek sovereign debt crisis. European banks topped the gainers list, with Greek banks as well as Barclays, Dexia and Standard Chartered
leading the advance. In other news, BMW jumped the most in 15 months after saying higher volumes in 2010 will boost profit, while BP in-
creased 2.9% after installing a new cap on its leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico and as Abu Dhabi said it’s considering making an invest-
ment in the company. Moreover, Peugeot surged 5.3% and Volkswagen gained 5.2% as a broker raised its price estimate on the French car-
maker by 3% and on the German automaker by 4%, saying increased demand and “attractive valuations” favor the industry. Across Europe,
the FTSE 100 advanced 2.01%, the DAX climbed 1.88% and the CAC 40 surged 1.97%. Asian stocks rose today, after Intel reported record Q2
sales and Singapore raised its economic growth forecast, driving optimism the global economy is recovering. Singapore raised its growth
forecast for a 3rd time this year as manufacturing output surged and the opening of 2 casinos boosted services, spurring a recovery that’s
prompted the central bank to tighten monetary policy. On the corporate front, commodity related shares gained ground after oil and metal
prices increased. Moreover, electronics and car companies were the biggest contributors to the Topix gain as the yen weakened against the
euro and the dollar. Australian retailers also rallied today after a measure of consumer confidence surged in July by the most in 13 months,
snapping 3 months of declines. The Nikkei climbed 2.71% and the Hang Seng added 1.03%.
International Equity Markets
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DJ STOXX50
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FTSE0-100
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Macro Agenda - Today
Corporate Agenda - Today Macro Agenda - Yesterday
Industrial Production s.a. MM MAY 1.2% 0.9% 12:00 Indust. Production w.d.a. YY MAY 11.4% 9.6% 12:00 GE ZEW Survey (Econ.Sentim.) JUL 25.3 28.7 21.2 For important disclosures refer to last page
US MARKETS
EBay Inc.
EBay and units including PayPal Inc. were sued by XPRT Ventures LLC for $3.8bn over claims the online retailer infringed patents related to e-commerce payment systems. EBay infringed six patents for online payments and stole trade secrets by sharing information in a patent application after making a confidentiality agreement, XPRT, based in Greenwich, Connecticut, said in a complaint in U.S. District Court in Wilmington, Delaware. “XPRT asserts EBay unfairly stole the idea and method of payment used in EBay’s PayPal and similar electronic payment systems”, XPRT said. “We are reviewing the complaint filed today”, said Alina Piacentino, a spokeswoman for EBay. “We believe it is without merit, and intend to defend our-selves vigorously”. Ford Motor Co.
Ford Motor said European unit sales declined 17% last month as expiring government incentive programs curbed sales of models such as the Fiesta subcompact. Deliveries in Ford’s main 19 markets in the region fell to 118,800 vehicles in June, its European division said. Ford said its market share slid 1.2pps to 7.8%. “The market is weakening as a result of the ending of scrappage schemes and the continuing frailty of the European economic recovery”, Ingvar Sviggum, vice president at Ford of Europe, said. The company projects European car sales will fall to as low as 14 million vehicles in 2010 from 15.9 million a year ago as demand erodes following the end of government car-scrapping programs. The European division posted a Q1 pretax profit of $107m compared with a loss of $585m a year earlier. Revenue rose 33% to $7.7bn. Intel Corp.
Intel reported record Q2 sales and topped analysts’ estimates with its forecast for this period, allaying concern that a rebound in technology spending is losing steam. Q3 sales will be $11.6bn, plus or minus $400m. Analysts had estimated $10.9bn, according to Bloomberg. Intel, the first big technol-ogy company to report Q2 earnings, renewed optimism that the industry will avoid getting mired in another slump. Reporting its third straight quarter of sales growth after last year’s contraction, Intel said corporate spending is strengthening, signalling that the economy isn’t headed back into recession. Q2 net income was $2.89m, $0.51 a share, compared with a loss of $398m, $0.07 a share, a year earlier, when Intel paid a European Union fine. Ana-lysts estimated a profit of $0.43 a share. Intel lifted its forecast for gross margin to 66% for the year, from a previous prediction of 64%. For the current period, the margin will be 67%, the company said. CEO Paul Otellini expects the PC market to rise as much as 16% annually through 2014, helping maintain Intel’s sales gains. Microsoft Corp.
Microsoft is paying developers to build mobile applications for its Windows Phone 7 system to help it narrow a lead by rival products from Apple and Google. The company is providing financial incentives ranging from free tools and test handsets to funds for software development and marketing, said Todd Brix, a senior director at Microsoft who works with app developers. In some cases, Microsoft is providing revenue guarantees, and will make up the difference if apps don’t sell as well as expected, he said. Tyco Electronics Ltd.
Tyco Electronics, the world’s biggest maker of electronic connectors, agreed to buy ADC Telecommunications Inc. for about $1.25bn to add broadband connectivity products. Tyco Electronics will pay $12.75 a share, or 44% more than ADC’s closing stock price on Monday, according to a statement yesterday. Yum! Brands Inc.
Yum Brands issued a disappointing FY earnings outlook and said it expects labour costs to rise in its key China market, sending its shares down 3.2%. In H2 of 2010, Yum expects labour and commodity inflation in its China division, which contributes 35% of company profit. Yum raised on Tuesday its FY EPS forecast to $2.43 from $2.39, based on results from H1 of the year. Analysts' average forecast had called for 2010 earnings of $2.48 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Net income for the quarter ended June 12 fell to $286m, $0.59 a share, from $303m, $0.63 a share, a year earlier when it booked a $68m gain related to increasing its stake in the operator of the KFC business in Shanghai. Excluding items, Yum earned $0.58 a share in the latest quarter, topping analysts' average call for per-share earnings of $0.55, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Total reve-nue was $2.57bn compared with $2.48bn a year earlier. "Overall, we are encouraged with our strong performance in a difficult macro-economic envi-ronment, Yum CEO David Novak said. ASIAN MARKETS
All Nippon Airways Co.
All Nippon Airways is considering Kansai airport as a possible base for a discount carrier, President Shinichiro Ito said. BHP Billiton Ltd.
Japanese regulators may move forward with its antitrust review of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group's plan to integrate their Australian iron ore opera-tions, the Nikkei business daily reported. The Japan Fair Trade Commission will seek additional information from the 2 Anglo-Australian miners on Friday, when the initial 30-day review ends, and decide on it within 90 days, the daily said. Steelmakers in Japan have argued that the integration could lead to higher prices and hamper fair competition as the 2 firms supply about 60% of the iron ore that Japan consumes, the Nikkei said. The 2 companies, along with Brazil's Vale, control 70% of the world's iron ore market, the daily said. Antitrust authorities in Australia, the European Union, China, South Korea and elsewhere are reviewing the integration, which BHP and Rio Tinto announced in December, the newspaper said. Komatsu Ltd.
Komatsu raised its H1 net income forecast by 41% to 52bn yen on rising demand from Asia and Latin America. Mizuho Financial Group Inc.
Mizuho Financial is raising as much as 748bn yen ($8.4bn) in its 2nd share sale in a year to comply with stricter global capital rules. Mizuho plans to sell as many as 6 billion shares for 130 yen each, according to a filing made to the Ministry of Finance yesterday. The bank’s stock closed at 135 yen on Tuesday, the lowest in 7years. Nissan Motor Co.
Nissan Motor plans to double its dealer network in India by the end of the current fiscal year, the company said. CP KRW 488,500 <005490.KS / 005490 KS> POSCO warned its H2 profit would fall by 30% after posting its 2nd best ever-quarterly profit on Tuesday, as steel prices crumble on weak Chinese demand. Asian steelmakers face a tough outlook as steep price declines in China force many to slash output and the market could slide into deeper oversupply as Beijing tightens policy and moves to curb exports. Signs of weakness in global auto sales will also cast a shadow over H2 profit growth of major Asian producers like Nippon Steel and POSCO, analysts said. But POSCO, most profitable among major Asian steelmakers, is likely to fare better, thanks to 2 price hikes and a weakening won, which will make imports less competitive in South Korea, a major destination for Chinese and Japanese steel, they said. Posco posted its 3rd straight gain in quarterly profit after increasing prices and production on revived demand from automobile and appliance makers. Q2 net income almost tripled to 1.2tr won ($989m) from 430.5bn won a year ago, Posco said. That fell short of the 1.46tr won average of a Bloomberg poll. Sales in the three months ended June 30 gained 25% to 7.93tr won. Toshiba Corp.
Toshiba said on Wednesday it would form a new partnership with SanDisk to operate its latest NAND flash memory plant in Yokkaichi, western Japan. SanDisk, the world's top maker of flash memory cards, is a production partner at Toshiba's existing plants. It said it would provide half of the invest-ment cost for production equipment and would take half the output. Toshiba said construction of the new plant, called Fab 5, would be completed in early 2011 and the initial manufacturing process would use 20-29 nanometre circuitry. A nanometre is one-billionth of a metre. Smaller circuitry allows chipmakers to pack more power onto smaller chips and lower per-chip costs. With the new plant, Toshiba and SanDisk aim to boost their competitive-ness when they see strong demand for NAND flash memories that are used in devices such as smart phones and tablet PCs. EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASML Holdings
ESN Rating HOLD TP EUR 23.00 / CP EUR 24.40 ASML Holding reported Q2 profit that beat analysts’ expectations as chip companies increased spending to meet demand for personal-computer memory and chips. Net income was EUR 239m compared with a net loss of EUR 104m a year earlier, ASML said. That beat the EUR 203m average of a Bloomberg poll. Q2 sales rose to EUR 1.07bn from EUR 277m a year earlier. Sales had been seen at EUR 1.01bn, according to Bloomberg. ASML forecast that FY sales may be 10% to 15% higher than its record 2007 level of EUR 3.8bn as companies including Samsung Electronics Co. expand factory lines to meet rising demand for personal-computer memory and chips used to store data in portable devices such as Apple’s iPhone. “For the first time in years we are seeing customers announcing new factories, and those factories need the full suite of our products”, ASML CFO Peter Wennink said. Banco Popular Espanol
ESN Rating BUY TP EUR 6.65 / CP EUR 4.85 Banco Popular Espanol had its long-term debt rating cut to A from AA- by Fitch Ratings, which cited a worsening risk profile. ESN Rating HOLD TP EUR 7.67 / CP EUR 7.54 Banco Espanol de Credito, a Spanish retail banking unit of Banco Santander, said H1 net income fell to EUR 381.7m from EUR 409.5m a year ago. Analysts had forecast EUR 372.5m, according to Bloomberg. Banesto said it has high resistance situations of stress. The bank has the capacity to cover as many as four times anticipated losses from its loan book and property assets, Banesto said today in a presentation. ESN Rating BUY TP EUR 43.00 / CP EUR 42.13 H BMW raised its 2010 sales and earnings forecast on sales in China and demand for the new 5-Series sedan. Shares in BMW jumped 8.3% yesterday on news and as robust demand for high-performance autos like the BMW Z4 roadster and the new 5-series continues to rebound from last year's ex-tremely low levels. BMW said 2010 pretax profit would "rise more sharply than previously forecast", as sales volumes increase around 10% to more than 1.4 million vehicles as opposed to the "solid" single-digit gain first expected. EBIT margin would surpass 5% in its core automobile business com-pared to BMW's initial conservative expectation of a figure in the low single-digits. ESN Rating HOLD TP GBP 4.20 / CP GBP 4.10 BP rose for a 2nd day after installing a new cap on the leaking Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico to halt the worst oil spill in U.S. history. The cap may be able to cut off the flow of oil and gas from the ocean floor before relief wells intersect the well close to the bottom to permanently plug it. Stopping the leak would allow the company to quantify the cost of containing and cleaning up the spill after spending $3.5bn so far. Separately, BP said the integrity test on the new cap on the leaking oil well in the Gulf of Mexico didn’t start today because U.S. officials ordered addi-tional analysis of the testing procedure. Burberry Group
Burberry Group reported a 27% gain in Q1 sales that beat analysts’ estimates, led by growth in Asia and increased deliveries to wholesale customers. Revenue in the 3 months ended June 30 rose to GBP 291m from GBP 229m a year earlier, the company said. Analysts had forecast GBP 259.5m. Excluding Spain, where Burberry is closing a factory, sales climbed 30% to GBP 282m. GlaxoSmithKline
ESN Rating ACCUMULATE TP GBP 14.60 / CP GBP 11.77 GlaxoSmithKline agreed to pay about $460m to resolve a majority of lawsuits alleging the company’s Avandia diabetes drug can cause heart attacks and strokes, according to sources. Glaxo agreed to settle about 10,000 suits for an average of at least $46,000 apiece. The company had been facing more than 13,000 suits alleging Glaxo hid the drug’s heart-attack risk, according to analysts. The settlements come as Glaxo is set to face its 1st Avan-dia trial in federal court in Philadelphia in October. Glaxo is settling Avandia claims as a U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory panel met yester-day to consider whether Avandia’s ability to control blood-sugar levels outweighs a possible increase in heart attacks, strokes and deaths from cardio-vascular disease. Mary Anne Rhyne, a spokeswoman for Glaxo, declined to comment. Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana said passenger traffic rose 2.2% in June from a year earlier. The load factor, or proportion of seats filled, increased to 85.2% from 83% a year earlier, Iberia said. ESN Rating REDUCE TP EUR 6.50 / CP EUR 6.72 <NOK1V.HE / NOK1V FH> Nokia Siemens Networks is in negotiations to purchase Motorola’s telecommunications-equipment business, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation. The deal, which may come in the next few weeks, may be worth $1.1bn to $1.3bn, the newspaper said. The business, which mostly makes older equipment, would give Nokia Siemens access to Motorola’s customers in the U.S. such as Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel, according to the report. The venture of Nokia and Siemens is cutting jobs and shutting offices to adjust to falling demand and price competition from Ericsson and China’s Huawei Technologies. Nokia Siemens CEO Rajeev Suri in November said the company will expand through acquisitions and partnerships while trimming its existing operations. Rio Tinto
ESN Rating BUY TP GBP 42.50 / CP GBP 31.35 Rio Tinto Group said Q2 iron ore production fell 2%. Output was 43.6 million metric tons, compared with 44.6 million tons a year earlier, the company said. That compares with an estimate of 44.8 million tons, according to a poll. The company is scheduled to report H1 earnings on Aug. 5. In other news, Rio Tinto Group approved $200m in spending to start expanding its Pilbara iron ore operations in Australia by 50%. The money will be used to start dredging work ahead of the development that will take annual capacity to 330 million metric tons by 2016, the company said. Rio now has capacity of 220 million tons a year. Rio revived its expansion studies last week after Australia reduced a planned mine profit tax. The company “re-mains cautious” while it awaits the final legislation, Rio’s CEO of Iron Ore Sam Walsh said. Separately, Rio Tinto Group said global iron ore production for its Australian and Canadian operations is expected to be about 234 million tons. Vestas Wind Systems
ESN Rating BUY TP DKK 375.00 / CP DKK 264.60 Vestas Wind Systems won an order for 21 turbines of its V90-3.0 megawatt model, or a total of 63 megawatts, for a project in Sweden. Vestas did not release financial details. Lillian Katelani lkatelani@ibg.gr +30 210 8173 389 Iliana Anagnostou ianagnostou@ibg.gr +30 210 8173 381 Recommendation system
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return, measured by the upside potential
(including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or Add), Hold, Reduce and Sell (in
short: B, A, H, R, S). Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the stocks as Rating Suspended
(RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
• Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 20% during the next 12 months time horizon
• Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon
• Hold: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon.
• Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of 0% to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon
• Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -10% during the next 12 months time horizon
• Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of
ESN) or a related party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock • Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of the issuer
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Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System (before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any
single stock under coverage.
Since 4 August 2008, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follow.
• Time horizon changed to 12 months (it was 6 months) • Recommendations Total Return Range changed as below: Disclaimer:
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Data current as of 09/07/2010
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% of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies
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