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[Published in: Jews in Russia and Eastern Europe, 2004, No. 1 (52)] The Post-Soviet Jewish Population
in Russia and the World∗
To gain an understanding of the current Jewish population trends in the former Soviet Union (FSU) especial attention should be given to the Russian Federa-tion, where most of the Jews who have remained in the FSU are now concen-trated. For such an analysis the first results of the 2002 Russian census should be studied in detail, as well as the Jewish intercensal demographic decrease by area/region. Recent emigration dramatically changed the places of residence of the Jewish population that originated from the FSU. The worldwide size and distribution of this Jewry will also be discussed. 1. The 2002 Russian Census Data1
Approximately 14 years after the last Soviet census of 1989 the first post-Soviet census was conducted in the Russian Federation. The 2002 census presents figures as of October 9. As did all the Soviet censuses, it includes a question on ethnicity.2 This article is part of a broader research project being carried out by the author at the Division of Jewish Demography and Statistics, the Avraham Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. I wish to express my appreciation to Sergio DellaPergola for his general advice. I am grateful to Ev-gueny Andreev, Robert J. Brym, Rafi Pizov, Gaiane Safarova and Emma Trahten-berg for providing materials, information, and suggestions. I also wish to thank Ju-dith Even for reading and editing an earlier draft. Responsibility for the content of the article is, of course, the author’s alone. By the completion of the writing of this article (November, 2004), there was only one short publication with data of the 2002 census on ethnicity: Goskomstat of Rus-sia, Osnovnye itogi Vserossiiskoi perepisi naseleni a 2002 goda /The 2002 All-Russia Popula-tion Census: Main Results (Moscow, 2003). At the same time, a lot of data of this census were presented on a special web-site (http://www.perepis2002.ru/) and these data were utilized in this article. This question was included in a program of censuses in all post-Soviet states con-ducted between 1999 and 2002, and its implementation in each of these states was Data on Jews from the Soviet censuses are based entirely on self- declaration of the respondents, and they are regarded as “a good example of a large and empirically measured core Jewish population in the Diaspora.”3 Not only did the censuses not require documentary evidence for answers to any question, but in regard to ethnicity the census takers were explicitly given in-structions that it was to be determined solely by the person polled – without any corroboration,4 and most scholars agree that the Soviet census figures on Jews (adults only) were very similar to the “legal” ethnicity as recorded in inter-nal passports.5 The “core” Jewish population is the aggregate of all those who, when asked, identify themselves as Jews or, in the case of children, are identified as such by their parents. It does not include persons of Jewish origin who report another ethnicity in the censuses. A broader definition, that of the “enlarged” Jewish population, that can also be empirically measured includes Jews along with their non-Jewish household members.6 In the Russian Federation this group is significantly larger than the “core” Jewish population, and the ratio be-tween them is growing. It was estimated that the ratio of “enlarged” to “core” Jewish population was 1.5 to 1 in the late 1970s, 1.6 to 1 in the late 1980s and, accompanied by political problems (Dominique Arel, “Demography and Politics in the First Post-Soviet Censuses: Mistrusted State, Contested Identities,” Population (English edition), 6 (57) (2002), pp. 801–828. Uziel O. Schmelz and Sergio DellaPergola, “World Jewish Population, 1993,” American Jewish Year Book, 95 (1995), p. 481. Brian D. Silver, “The Ethnic and Language Dimensions in Russian and Soviet Censuses,” in Ralph S. Clem, ed., Research Guide to the Russian and Soviet Censuses (Ithaca, 1986), pp. 70–97; Ward W. Kingkade, “Content, Organization, and Meth-odology in Recent Soviet Population Censuses,” Population and Development Review, 1 (15) (1989), pp. 123–138. See, e.g.: Mordechai Altshuler, Soviet Jewry since the Second World War: Population and Social Structure (New York, 1987), pp. 21–24 (hereafter: Altshuler, 1987); Zvi Gitelman, “The Reconstruction of Community and Jewish Identity in Russia,” East European Jewish Affairs, 2 (24) (1994), p. 40; cf. Robert J. Brym, with Rozalina Ryvkina, The Jews of Moscow, Kiev and Minsk: Identity, Antisemitism, Emigration (New York, 1994), pp. 21–22. See: Sergio DellaPergola, “Demography,” in Martin Goodman, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Jewish Studies (Oxford, 2002), pp. 807–808. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World based on the data of the 1994 Russian micro-census, 1.8 to 1.7 However, even the “enlarged” Jewish population is smaller than the total population entitled to immigrate to Israel (aliya) according to the Israeli Law of Return (this includes Jews, their children and grandchildren, and all respective spouses).8 Although individuals of Jewish parentage who adopted another religion are in theory excluded from the “core” Jewish population, there is no relevant statistical information on such people in the FSU. At the same time, we know that a number of cases of conversion have been documented.9 Moreover, in Russia and Ukraine a sampling of the Jewish population found that over 10% see Christianity as most attractive.10 It should also be mentioned that a study in St. Petersburg found that all Jews with two Jewish parents who converted to Christianity continued to identify themselves ethnically as Jews.11 Thus, because our estimates of the “core” Jewish population are based on census data, Rus-sian/FSU numbers of this Jewish population category are obviously somewhat overstated. Mark Tolts, “Jewish Demography of the Former Soviet Union,” in Sergio Della-Pergola and Judith Even, eds., Papers in Jewish Demography 1997 (Jerusalem, 2001), p. 112. According to the estimate based on the 1994 Russian micro-census which in-cluded in the “enlarged” Jewish population children of mixed couples who had not identified themselves as Jewish and were living separately from a Jewish parent, the ratio between the “enlarged” and “core” Jewish populations was not much higher – 1.93 to 1 (Evgueny Andreev, “Jews in Russia’s Households [Based on the 1994 Micro-census],” ibid., p. 148). For more on the demographic aspects of the Israeli Law of Return, see: Mark Tolts, “Jews in the Russian Federation: A Decade of Demographic Decline,” Jews in Eastern Europe 3 (40) (1999), pp. 6–10 (hereafter: Tolts, 1999). Judith Deutsch Kornblatt, Doubly Chosen: Jewish Identity, the Soviet Intelligentsia, and the Russian Orthodox Church (Madison, 2004), passim. Zvi Gitelman, “Thinking about Being Jewish in Russia and Ukraine,” in Zvi Gitelman, with Musya Glants and Marshall I. Goldman, eds., Jewish Life after the USSR (Bloomington, IN, 2003), p. 51 (hereafter: Gitelman et al., 2003). Boris Wiener, “Konstruirovanie sovremennoi ethnokonfessional’noi identichnosti: ot bezveriia k vere chuzhogo naroda” (The Construction of Contemporary Ethno-Confession Identity: From Lack of Belief to the Faith of Another People), Diaspory /Diasporas, 1 (6) (2004), p. 196. The Jewish Population in the Russian Federation as Recorded
in the 2002 Census, by Area and Subgroup
Total 233,596
Although the total for the Jewish population includes Georgian, Moun- tain, Central Asian (Bukharan) Jews, and Krymchaks, 98.4% simply called themselves “Jews” (Table 1). This was true for different areas of Russia, and seems to be a continuation of the tendency previously found in the data of the 1994 micro-census,12 which may indicate a process of strengthening Jewish identification among the members of different Jewish subgroups. The 2002 Russian census reported only 3,394 persons as “Mountain Jews.” In the 1989 Soviet census 11,282 people were counted as “Mountain Jews,” while even more of them were recorded separately as “Tats” – 19,420. The latter is misleading since the “Tats” were actually Mountain Jews.13 By la-beling them “Tats,” the Soviet authorities sought to separate them from the rest of the Jewish people.14 Recently, however, “Tats” have immigrated to Is- See: Mark Tolts, “The Interrelationship between Emigration and the Socio-Demographic Profile of Russian Jewry,” in Noah Lewin-Epstein, Yaacov Ro’i and Paul Ritterband, eds., Russian Jews on Three Continents (London, 1997), pp. 151–152 (hereafter: Tolts, 1997). Amiram Gonen, ed., The Encyclopedia of the Peoples of the World (New York, 1993), p. 589. See: Mordechai Altshuler, Yehudei Mizrah Kavkaz (The Jews of the Eastern Cauca-sus) (Jerusalem, 1990), pp. 129–132; Michael Zand, “Notes on the Culture of the Non-Ashkenazi Jewish Communities under Soviet Rule,” in Yaacov Ro’i and Avi Beker, eds., Jewish Culture and Identity in the Soviet Union (New York, 1991), pp. 424–426. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World rael in large numbers as Jews under the Law of Return. It is interesting that those counted as “Tats” in the 1994 Russian micro-census have, since the 1989 Soviet census, decreased more than those who were simply counted as “Moun-tain Jews.”15 The 2002 census also recorded some 2,303 persons as “Tats,” of whom 825 were recorded in Dagestan and 621 in the city of Moscow. Accord-ing to the data of the 1999 Azerbaijani census, there were 10,900 “Tats” in Azerbaijan, but according to the last Soviet census of 1989 there were only 10,200 “Tats” in this republic.16 We may surmise that by the end of the 1990s some Muslims started to use this ethnic label, and this problem should be stud-ied separately. Therefore, we have not included this small number of people recorded by the 2002 census as “Tats” in the analysis of “core” Jewish popula-tion. Decrease of the Jewish Population in Republics
of the North Caucasus, by Sub-ethnic Group, 1989–2002
(a) Relation of the “Tats” to Jews in the results of the 2002 Russian census is not clear (b) Data given on Chechnia is the combined total for Chechnia and Ingushetiia. Sources: 1989 Soviet census; 2002 Russian census. Mark Tolts, “Demography of the Jews in the Former Soviet Union: Yesterday and Today” (hereafter: Tolts, 2003) in Gitelman et al., 2003, p. 204. The data for republics of the North Caucasus show that between the 1989 and 2002 censuses there was a pronounced decrease of Mountain Jews, includ-ing those recorded as “Tats” (Table 2). In the first five years of this period the share of those recorded as “Tats” in the total of Dagestan Jewry dramatically decreased from 50% in 1989 to 28% in 1994, and in the 1994 micro-census, a slight majority of Jews in this republic (54%) simply called themselves “Jews.”17 Thus, in the following analysis of regional changes between the 1989 Soviet census and the 2002 Russian census we shall use data of the last census on Jews as a whole, including those recorded as Georgian, Mountain and Central Asian Jews, as well as Krymchaks.18 Like the previous Soviet censuses, the 2002 census was based entirely on self-declaration of respondents. However, the post-Soviet Russian Constitution (Article 26.1) expressly forbids collection of information on an individual’s ethnicity against his/her will: “No one may be forced to determine and indicate his or her ethnicity [natsional’naia prinadlezhnost’].”19 This prohibition applies to surveys,20 including population censuses. As a result, in the 2002 census data there appeared for the first time a rather sizable number of people (about 1.5 million) whose ethnicity was not recorded. Accordingly, the census data for Jews should be adjusted, and for this we must evaluate Jewish intercensal demographic decrease. 2. Assessment of the Intercensal Demographic Decrease
A negative balance of births and deaths appeared among the Jews in the Rus-sian Federation at the end of the 1950s. Despite the emigration in the 1970s, this remained the main cause of Jewish population decline until the recent mass Mark Tolts, “Recent Jewish Emigration and Population Decline in Russia,” Jews in Eastern Europe, 1 (35) (1998), p. 16 (hereafter: Tolts, 1998). For these data see Appendix, Table 1A. For the number of Jews by region accord-ing to the 1989 census, see: Tolts, 1998, p. 23. The Constitution of the Russian Federation (was adopted at national voting on December 12, 1993). Available: http://www.constitution.ru/en/10003000-03.htm. See, e.g.: V.D. Karpovich, ed., Kommentarii k Konstitutsii Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Com-mentary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation) (Moscow, 2002), p. 240. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World emigration. For the period between 1970 and 1989, only about 20% of the Jew-ish population decrease in the country was attributable to emigration.21 This situation changed with the recent mass emigration. In 1989–1993 the negative vital balance was estimated to be only about 34% of the total decrease (Table 3). In the next three years, 1994–1996, as well as in 1999–2000 (when there was a newly increased emigration wave), this factor accounted for 46% of the total decrease. However, in 1997–1998 and in 2001–2002 (when a pro-nounced decrease in emigration occurred), the negative vital balance accounted for most of the total decrease – 56% and 61%, respectively. Thus, the negative vital balance became again, as it was before 1989, the main reason for Jewish population decline. Causes of Jewish Demographic Decrease in the Russian Federation,
1989–2002, Thousands
(a) Registered statistics data for 1989–1998, see Mark Tolts, “The Jewish Population of Russia, 1989–1995,” Jews in Eastern Europe, 3 (31) (1996), p. 7 (hereafter: Tolts, 1996); Tolts, 1999, p. 36. According to the author’s estimate, in 1999 and thereafter, the number of Jews who emigrated without relinquishing their residence status in the Russian Federation, based on combined Israeli and Russian statistics; not including tourists who took on immigrant status, see Mark Tolts, “Mass Aliyah and Jewish Emigration from Russia: Dynamics and Factors,” East European Jewish Affairs, 2 (33) (2003), pp. 90–92 (hereafter: Tolts, 2003, Aliyah). (b) “Effectively Jewish” births minus registered Jewish deaths for 1989–1998, see Tolts, 1996, p. 18; Tolts, 1999, p. 35. In 1999 and thereafter, we applied the rate of the vital balance per 1,000 “core” Jews in 1998. “Effectively Jewish” births are the newborns Sources: Computations based on Russian vital and migration statistics. Mark Tolts, “Jews in the Russian Republic since the Second World War: The Dy-namics of Demographic Erosion,” in IUSSP, International Population Conference, Montreal 1993: Proceedings, Vol. 3 (Liège, 1993), p. 101. For the period from 1989 to 2002 as a whole, Jewish demographic de- crease in the Russian Federation was estimated at 319,000. About 42% of this decrease was due to the negative vital balance and 58% was due to the negative migratory balance. Using these balances we can, as a first step in any evaluation of the 2002 Russian census results for the Jews, prepare three variants of esti-mates of Russia’s “core” Jewish population for the beginning of 2003 based on the 1989 Soviet census and the 1994 Russian micro-census (see Table 4). Estimates of the “Core” Jewish Population in the Russian Federation,
2003, Thousands(a)
(a) At the beginning of the given year. (b) Based on census/micro-census data including “Tats.” (c) Based on micro-census data not including “Tats,” with subsequent partial adjustment for this subgroup. Sources: 1989 Soviet census, 1994 Russian micro-census, and Table 3 of this article. The estimates remain within a very narrow range – from 251,000 to 255,000 – and the intermediate estimate of 252,000 is a rather conservative and well grounded figure of the “core” Jewish population: its base is the 1994 mi-cro-census (not including “Tats,” with subsequent partial adjustment for this The census figure (including “Tats”) minus the decrease during the period: 570,000 –319,000 = 251,000. The micro-census figure (including “Tats”) adjusted to the beginning of the year minus the decrease during the period: 410,000 – 155,000 = 255,000. The micro-census figure (not including “Tats”) adjusted to the beginning of the year minus the decrease during the period 1994–1998: 402,000–97,000 = 305,000. Subsequently, this estimated figure adjusted for “Tats” minus the decrease during the period 1999–2002: 310,000 – 58,000 = 252,000. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World registered group), which much more closely resembles the 2002 census than the 1989 census. Comparison of the 2002 census figure of 233,596 (see Table 1) with our intermediate estimate of 254,000 (adjusted to the census date) indicated a gap of about 20,000. This gap clearly demonstrates a growing process of Jewish ethnic assimilation in contemporary Russia, and shows that a sizable group of Jews do not want to be recorded as Jews in the census. This fits our previous findings from an analysis of the recent dynamics of birth statistics, which re-vealed that in present-day Russia a sizable segment among the former “offi-cially recognized” Jews (Jewish according to Soviet passports) prefer not to de-clare their ethnicity even if they are not part of a mixed marriage.25 Moreover, our previous analysis revealed that sizable numbers of Jewish emigrants continue to be registered in neighborhood passport office files in the Russian Federation.26 (They probably retain possession of their living quarters, and perhaps rent them out.) In addition to this group there are some Jews who left Russia as tourists and for various reasons either acquired immigrant status in Israel27 or settled in other countries. Since some of these may be included in the results of the cen-sus of 2002, the real number of Jews with unstated ethnicity may be even larger than the above noted gap of about 20,000, which gave us a minimum estimate of the spread of ethnic assimilation. The ethnicity of every Soviet citizen was written in his/her internal pass- port once he/she reached age sixteen. Anyone with two Jewish parents had no choice but to be registered as being Jewish, in many cases without wanting to. The Soviet authorities, contrary to their proclaimed goal of assimilation, actu- See: Mark Tolts, “Aliya from the Russian Federation: An Analysis of Recent Data,” Jews in Eastern Europe, 1–2 (47–48) (2002), pp. 16–18 (hereafter: Tolts, 2002). For the whole period of 1999–2002 their number was estimated at 14,800 (see: Tolts, 2003, Aliyah, p. 76). Their number for the period between the 1994 micro-census and the recent 2002 census was tentatively estimated at 3,800 (ibid.). ally preserved Soviet Jewry by thus labeling Jews on the individual level.28 Only the offspring of mixed marriages could choose the ethnicity of one or the other parent, and most of these preferred the ethnicity of the non-Jewish parent.29 The changes noted above in the process of Jewish assimilation occurred only after the 1994 Russian micro-census with the introduction of the new in-ternal passport, which does not record the holder’s ethnicity. The estimated negative vital and migratory balances yielded the total decrease of 164,000 in the five years preceding this micro-census (see Table 3). An estimate, based on the 1989 Soviet census data (including “Tats”) and these balances, of the “core” Jewish population in the Russian Federation in 1994 yielded the figure of about 406,000 (570,000–164,000). The discrepancy between this figure and the medium (central) estimate based on the 5% 1994 micro-census sample of the “core” Jewish population in the country (about –3,000) is within the limits of sampling error (±6,000),30 with 95% probability. Therefore, it shows no identity changes in the five years preceding the micro-census. Thus, despite all recent changes in the Jewish situation in the Russian Federation and the FSU as a whole, such as greater investment in Jewish edu-cation, we see a continuation of ethnic assimilation. Moreover, emigration is selective by level of Jewish identity, and is obviously higher among the more strongly identifying Jews.31 These are the ones who have left – and are still leav-ing – the FSU. Zvi Gitelman, “Recent Demographic and Migratory Trends among Soviet Jews: Implications for Policy,” Post-Soviet Geography, 3 (33) (1992), p. 140. See, e.g.: A. Volkov, “Etnicheski smeshannye sem’i v SSSR: Dinamika i sostav” (Ethnically Mixed Families in the USSR: Dynamics and Structure) [Part 2], Vestnik Statistiki 8 (1989), pp. 8–24; Mark Tolts, “The Balance of Births and Deaths among Soviet Jewry,” Jews and Jewish Topics in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 2 (18) (1992), pp. 21–22. For an estimate of sampling error, see, e.g.: Frank Yates, Sampling Methods for Cen-suses and Surveys (London, 1981), Ch. 7. See, e.g.: Robert J. Brym and Rozalina Ryvkina, “Russian Jewry Today: A Socio-logical Profile,” Sociological Papers (Bar-Ilan University), Vol. 5 (1996), pp. 1–47; Va-lery Chervyakov, Zvi Gitelman and Vladimir Shapiro, “E Pluribus Unum? Post-Soviet Jewish Identities and Their Implications for Communal Reconstruction,” in Gitelman et al., 2003, pp. 61–75. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World The estimated figures show that during the approximately 14 years of the recent mass emigration (between the 1989 Soviet census and the 2002 Russian census), the total number of “core” Jews in the Russian Federation dropped from 570,000 (including “Tats”) to about 254,000, or by 55%. However, during the first five years of this mass emigration (between the 1989 Soviet census and the Russian 1994 micro-census), the absolute number of the decrease was higher (about 161,000) than in the following nine-year period (about 155,000), and the rates of this reduction were 28% and 38%, respectively. A study of re-gional dynamics provides a more detailed breakdown of this decrease. 3. Evaluation and Analysis of Jewish Regional Dynamics
As a first necessary step for any evaluation of the 2002 Russian census results for Jews by area, we can compare them with the data of Russian governmental vital statistics on the distribution of Jewish births and deaths by area (see Table 5). Comparison of Jewish Census/Micro-census Results, with Jewish Birth and
Death Data, by Area, the Russian Federation, 1988/1989–2002, Percent
(a) Estimate based on the 1989 census, including “Tats.” (b) Medium (central) estimate based on the 5% 1994 micro-census sample, including “Tats.” (c) Estimate based on the 2002 Russian census, not including “Tats.” (e) Ethnicity of the mother was registered as the option of the person who reported the Sources: 1989 Soviet census; 1994 Russian micro-census; 2002 Russian census; vital statistics The vital statistics data corresponded rather well with the census data. In the 1989 Soviet census and the 1994 Russian micro-census, the percentage of Jews living in Moscow was within the range of Moscow’s share of the total number of Jewish births and deaths in Russia. In 2002, the share of births to Jewish mothers recorded in Moscow among the respective total for Russia was 40%, and that of Jewish deaths was 30%. Thus, the share of Moscow’s Jews (35%) among the total number of Jews counted by the 2002 Russian census matches its share among the Jewish vital events in the country. As noted above, in the 2002 Russian census results there were about 1.5 million people whose ethnicity was not stated or not known. Clearly, there were some Jews among them, and we should adjust the census data accordingly based on the estimated total number of “core” Jews on the census date (254,000). Most of the total people of unknown ethnicity in Russia (approxi-mately two-thirds) were recorded in Moscow city, Moscow Oblast’, and in St. Petersburg. However, distribution of these people in the census results by area is very different from the distribution of the recorded number of Jews: St. Pe-tersburg’s share (25%) is close to that of Moscow city (28%) for the total num-ber of people of unknown ethnicity, whereas Moscow’s percentage as a place of residence (35%) is much higher than that of St. Petersburg (16%) among re-corded Jews. There are no real indications in which area Jews were more prone to be included in the group of “unknown.” Moreover, upward adjustment pro-portional to the percentage of recorded Jews among the total population in a given area cannot fill the gap of about 20,000 between the census figure (233,596) and the estimated number (254,000). Thus, for the distribution of this approximately 20,000 Jews who, we as- sume, did not report their ethnicity, we proportionately adjusted the results of the 2002 census upwards according to the percentage of Jews recorded in each area among the total recorded number of Jews. According to the adjusted re-sults of this census, during the recent mass aliya and emigration the Jewish population decline within the Russian Federation shows regional differences (Table 6). The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World Decrease of the “Core” Jewish Population in the Russian Federation,
by Area, 1989–2002(a)
(a) At census/micro-census date. (b) Estimate based on the 1989 Soviet census, including “Tats.” (c) Medium (central) estimate based on the 5% 1994 micro-census sample, including “Tats.” (d) Estimate based on proportionately adjusted results of the 2002 Russian census. Sources: 1989 Soviet census; 1994 Russian micro-census; 2002 census. According to the data of the 1989 Soviet census, about 176,000 (31%) of the Jews in Russia (including “Tats”) lived in Moscow, 107,000 (19%) in St. Pe-tersburg, and approximately 287,000 (50%) in the provinces. The data of the 1994 micro-census show that the numbers of Russia’s “core” Jews had changed quite a bit: about 135,000 (33%) lived in Moscow, 61,000 (15%) in St. Petersburg and approximately 213,000 (52%) in the provinces as a whole. The decline between the 1989 Soviet census and the 1994 Russian micro-census was much greater in St. Petersburg (43%) than in Moscow (23%), or in the provinces (26%). In the following nine-year period the rate of decrease was about the same in both main cities (approximately 35%), whereas in the prov-inces it was higher (41%) for the first time. These differences were caused by specific features of emigration in each area.32 According to our evaluation, in all three groups the decrease during the recent mass emigration was greater than in the entire three decades between See, e.g.: Tolts, 1999, p. 18; Tolts, 2003, Aliyah, p. 79. 1959 and 1989. During the approximately 14 years between the 1989 Soviet census and the 2002 Russian census the decrease of the “core” Jewish popula-tion was higher in St. Petersburg (63%) than in Moscow (50%), or in the prov-inces (56%). According to this estimate, at the time of the 2002 census about 88,000 (35%) of the “core” Jews in the Russian Federation lived in Moscow, approximately 40,000 (16% – almost the same as in 1994) in St. Petersburg, and 126,000 (49%) in the provinces. The stabilization of St. Petersburg’s share may be explained in terms of the general dynamics in this second largest Russian city. At the beginning of this decade, the socioeconomic situation in St. Petersburg showed clear im-provement vis-à-vis other regions of the country. For a general measure of dif-ferentiation we shall use the Human Development Index (HDI).33 In 1999, this city ranked only eighth in HDI among Russian’s regions, whereas by 2001 it had reached third place.34 Between the 1989 and 2002 censuses only the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg preserved their (respectively first and second) places among the “core” Jewish population of Russia’s regions (see Appendix, Table 2A). Ac-cording to the data of the 1994 micro-census, Moscow Oblast’ advanced from the fourth to the third place and maintained this ranking in the 2002 census. According to the data of this census, about two-fifths (39%) of Russia’s “core” Jews lived in Moscow City and Oblast’ as a whole. The most extensive changes occurred between the 1994 Russian micro- census and the 2002 census. During this period, the Jewish Autonomous Oblast’ (Birobidzhan) dropped from the list of the largest “core” Jewish popula-tions as a result of the extremely high emigration to Israel. The “core” Jewish population there underwent a very pronounced decline, from 8,900 to 2,300. According to the 2002 census, only about 1% of the total number of Russia’s This composite measure developed by the United Nations Development Pro-gramme (UNDP) is based on statistics of longevity, educational attainment, and income per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP) in US dollars. Cf. UNDP, Human Development Report, Russian Federation 2001 (Moscow, 2002), p. 82; Independent Institute for Social Policy, Sotsial’nyi atlas rossiiskikh regionov (Social Atlas of Russian Regions) (Moscow, 2004). Available: http://www.socpol.ru/. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World Jews lived there and the share of Jews in this Oblast’ fell to about 1.2% of the total population. The high rate of decrease of Birobidzhan’s Jews clearly re-flects the relatively difficult socioeconomic situation in Russia’s Far East, where Jews constitute only a small part of the general population decrease caused by emigration from this part of Russia.35 Of course, most of the migrants from this territory went to other parts of the country, whereas the Jews and their non-Jewish relatives had another possibility – emigration abroad, especially to Israel. A striking example of such population decrease is the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug where between the 1989 and 2002 censuses the number of recorded Jews fell dramatically – from 332 to 38. Also dropped from the list of the largest “core” Jewish populations was Bryansk Oblast’. Earlier we found that a sizable number of Jews emigrated to outside the FSU from this Oblast’, and the number of emigrants was higher than that for many other oblasts with larger “core” Jewish populations.36 The fact that this Oblast’ was the one in the Russian Federation most harmed by the Chernobyl catastrophe37 may at least partially explain the decrease of the Jewish population in the Oblast’. The Jewish population in Dagestan fell from the fourth to the fifteenth place. Situated in the most conflict-ridden region of the country, Dagestan had a very high rate of emigration. According to the 2002 Russian census, those regions with cities of more than one million inhabitants had the largest “core” Jewish populations – Sverd-lovsk, Samara, Nizhegorod, Rostov, and Chelyabinsk Oblasts, as well as Tatar-stan. Among these regions the most sizable numbers of Jews were recorded in Sverdlovsk Oblast’ (about 6,900) and Samara Oblast’ (more than 6,400). The For more on general population decrease in Russia’s Far East between the 1989 Soviet census and the 2002 census, see, e.g.: Timothy Heleniak, “The 2002 Census in Russia: Preliminary Results,” Eurasian Geography and Economics, 6 (44) (2003), pp. 430–442; E.M. Shcherbakova, “Chislennost’ i razmeshchenie naseleniia” (Size and Distribution of Population), in A.G. Vishnevsky, Naselenie Rossii 2002 (Population of Russia 2002) (Moscow, 2004), pp. 9–15. See: Murray Feshbach, Environmental and Health Atlas of Russia (Moscow, 1995), map 2.51. data of this census clearly show that the “core” Jewish populations which re-mained in the Russia’s provinces are not so small. 4. Size and Distribution Worldwide of the “Core” Jewish Population
Originating from the FSU
According to the 1970 Soviet census, at the outset of Jewish emigration there were about 2.15 million “core” Jews in the Soviet Union. To evaluate their sub-sequent dynamics we must estimate the respective balance of births and deaths, and accession to the “core” Jewish population in connection with the migra-tion. All other possible factors, including the changing of ethnic affiliation of people of mixed origin remaining in the FSU, can not compete with these two in terms of their effect. There is probably only one large group of such people interested in ethnic affiliation with the Jewish people, namely those who made the decision to emigrate, particularly to Israel. These people have been leaving the FSU very rapidly and they have joined the Jewish population abroad, par-ticularly in Israel. From 1970 to 2003 the negative vital balance of this population may be tentatively guesstimated at about –0.7 million. Between the 1970 and 1989 So-viet censuses, the recorded number of Jews in the USSR fell by about 700,000. In the same period about 290,800 Jews and their relatives emigrated from the USSR.38 After subtracting the latter figure from the former, we found that more than 409,000 of the total decrease could be attributed to the negative bal-ance of births and deaths. Of course, not all these emigrants were “core” Jews. If, in a conservative estimate, we assume that only 10% were non-Jews accord-ing to the criteria of the Soviet census count, we arrive at an even larger nega-tive balance of births and deaths – 438,000. For the next 15-year period we previously made direct estimates for the two largest FSU countries, for which the negative balances of births and deaths Including all destinations for those who emigrated with Israeli visas, see: Altshuler, 1987, p. 62; Yoel Florsheim, “Emigration of Jews from the Soviet Union in 1988,” Jews and Jewish Topics in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, 2 (9) (1989), p. 30. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World were about –86,000 for Ukraine in 1989–2001, and about –134,000 for the Russian Federation in 1989–2002.39 Thus, for these two FSU countries to-gether, if we continue this calculation based on the same assumptions, we esti-mate the vital balance in 1989–2003 at about 233,000. In all other FSU coun-tries during this period this balance was also negative. (The only exceptions were Uzbekistan, where the number of Jewish deaths exceeded the number of births to Jewish mothers for the first time in 1990, and Tadzhikistan, where this occurred in 1992.40) Although the balance of births and deaths among FSU immigrants in Is- rael is positive, not all of these immigrants were Jewish. As a consequence, in 2002, for example, of the 10,596 births recorded to mothers who had immi-grated since 1990 from the FSU only 7,603 were to Jewish mothers. The total number of deaths among these immigrants in the same year was more than 7,000.41 At the same time, in the USA and Germany, FSU immigrants had negative balances of births and deaths, although the size of the balances is un-known. Since these factors partly offset each other and are surely much lower than the negative balance of Jewish births and deaths in the FSU, we can skip them in the rough guesstimate. Vital decrease was partially offset by accession to the “core” Jewish popu- lation in connection with the migration. This accession may be tentatively cal-culated at about 0.15 million on the basis of the discrepancy between the per-centages of Jews among the immigrants to Israel according to the Russian/FSU and the Israeli definitions. Thus, at the beginning of 2004, according to our Table 3 of this article; Mark Tolts, “Demographic Trends among the Jews of the FSU,” paper presented at the International Conference in Honor of Professor Mordechai Altshuler on Soviet and Post-Soviet Jewry (Jerusalem, December 28–30, 2003), Table 6. Israel CBS, Statistical Abstract of Israel 2003 (Jerusalem, 2003), Tables 3.13 and 3.14; Moshe Sicron, “Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) in the Israeli Population and Labor Force,” paper presented at the International Conference in Honor of Professor Mordechai Altshuler on Soviet and Post-Soviet Jewry (Jerusa-lem, December 28–30, 2003), Table 4. guesstimates, there were about 1.6 million “core” Jews worldwide who had originated from the FSU (Table 7). Dynamics of the “Core” Jewish Population Originating from the FSU,
1970–2004
“Core” Jewish population in the Soviet Accession to “core” Jewish population in “Core” Jewish population originating (a) “Effectively Jewish” births minus Jewish deaths. “Effectively Jewish” births are new- (b) Mostly in Israel; on the discrepancy between percentages of Jews among immigrants to Israel according to Russian and Israeli definitions, see Table 8. Sources: 1970 Soviet census; author’s guesstimates. Israeli official statistics are based on the Ministry of Interior’s Population Register file, which defines “who is a Jew” according to the halakha (Jewish re-ligious law). At the same time, “Jews” according to the official Russian/FSU definition comprised only those emigrants (aged 16 and over) who were desig-nated as such in their internal passports. For children, who lacked passports, ethnicity was defined on the basis of the parents’ ethnicity. If the parents be-longed to different ethnic groups, preference was given to the mother’s ethnic-ity, although even in the post-Soviet era non-Jewish ethnic affiliation was clearly preferred by the offspring of such couples.42 One consequence of the post-Soviet Jewish vital crisis and of rising mixed marriage is the recent pronounced decrease in the share of Jews among the FSU immigrants to Israel, according to official Israeli data: 96% in 1990, 72% in 1995, 47% in 2000 and 43% in 2002. These proportions were almost the Cf. Volkov, “Etnicheski smeshannye sem’i v SSSR: Dinamika i sostav,” pp. 8–24; Tolts, 1996, p. 15. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World same as those among the immigrants from the Russian Federation.43 According to official Russian data, the proportion of Jews among all those who emigrated to Israel fell from 64% in the second half of 1992 to 53% in 1995, 27% in 2000 and 23.5% in 2002 (Table 8). The different standards for definition of Jewish-ness in Israel and the FSU, explain the divergence in the respective percent-ages. Percentage of Jews among Migrants to Israel from
the Russian Federation and the Entire FSU, 1990–2002
1990 … … 96 1991 … … 91 1992 64(c) 82 84 1993 60 82 83 1994 58 77 77 1995 53 73 72 1996 49 67 68 1997 36 60 60 1998 31 55 54 1999 31 51 50 2000 27 47 47 2001 25 45 44 2002 23.5 43 43 (a) Of all emigrants to Israel whose ethnicity was known. (b) Of all immigrants who entered Israel according to the Law of Return whose (c) Second half of the year. Sources: Goskomstat of Russia data; Israel CBS data. For similar data for immigrants from Ukraine to Israel in 1996-1999, see: Ilan Riss and Yifat Klopshtock, “Olim miukraina lefi rishum misrad hapnim, 1996–1999” (Immigrants from Ukraine According to the Registry of the Interior Ministry, 1996–1999), in Ludmila Dymerskaya-Tsigelman, ed., Yehudei brit hamo‘atsot l’sheavar b’yisrael ub’tfutsot (The Jews of the Former Soviet Union in Israel and in the Dias-pora), 5 (20–21) (2002), pp. 348–350. Obviously some of the immigrants, who were considered Jews according to their former Soviet internal passports (as well as in population censuses), that is, the offspring of a Jewish male and non-Jewish female, are counted as non-Jews by Israeli statistics, which define a Jew as someone born of a Jewish mother. Nonetheless, many more immigrants are counted as Jews in Israel than were registered as such in the FSU, and many of these had never identified themselves as Jews before. Based on the data above, the number of such immi-grants may be tentatively guesstimated at about 150,000 or even more.44 This recognition of the Judaism/Jewish ethnicity of some individuals who had pre-viously neither identified themselves nor been seen by FSU authorities as Jews, somewhat reduced the decline of the “core” Jewish population originating from the FSU, and added to the Jewish population in Israel. According to our guesstimates, at the beginning of 2004 about one-half of these “core” Jews were living in Israel, less than one-quarter remained in the FSU, and the rest were mostly in the USA and Germany (see Table 9). Distribution of the “Core” Jewish Population Originating
from the FSU, by Country, 2004, Millions
(a) Including other unlisted much smaller ex-Soviet Jewish immigrant communities; Sources: Table 7 of this article; author’s guesstimates. At the same time, the role of formal conversions to Judaism in Israel was rather minor. According to the most recent data, in 2002 and 2003, only 890 and 918 FSU immigrants, respectively, underwent conversions in this country (Ha‘aretz, November 22, 2004, p. 1A). The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World In the USA their guesstimated number of 0.3 million is only a small frac- tion of the total “core” Jewish population, which numbered just about 5.3 mil-lion.45 The figure for the “core” Jewish population in the USA originating from the FSU corresponded fairly closely to the number (252,000) of FSU “core” Jewish adult immigrants who arrived since 1970 and were registered in the Na-tional Jewish Population Survey in 2000–2001 (NJPS).46 After September 11, 2001, the USA ceased to exist as a major destination for post-Soviet Jewish emigration and, in 2002 and 2003, only about 2,500 and 1,600, respectively, were recorded as having been assisted by the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS).47 At the same time the recent newcomers from the FSU in Germany (more than 89,800) constitute approximately 88% of the registered members of the Jewish community.48 At the beginning of 2004, in the FSU the number of “core” Jews was es- timated at 395,000, of whom 243,000 lived in the Russian Federation and 89,000 in Ukraine.49 Thus, the remaining numbers of ex-Soviet Jews in these two countries are now lower than their numbers in the USA and Germany, re-spectively. In the West, following the USA and Germany, the largest, though much smaller, number of ex-Soviet Jews, now lives in Canada. According to an esti-mate based on the Canadian census, there were about 20,000 self-identified ex-Soviet Jews in 1996, not counting only the few who lived in the least populated areas of the country.50 This figure includes all Jews originating from the FSU Cf. Sergio DellaPergola, “World Jewish Population, 2004,” American Jewish Year Book, 104 (2004) [forthcoming] (hereafter: DellaPergola, 2004). NJPS 2000-2001, “Jews from the Former Soviet Union (FSU): Reconciling Esti-mates from NJPS and the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS).” Available: http://www.ujc.org/content_display.html?ArticleID=84102; for characteristics of adult ex-Soviet Jews in the USA according to the data of this survey, see: Jonathon Ament, Jewish Immigrants in the United States (October 2004). Available: http://www.ujc.org/content_display.html?ArticleID=118670. HIAS, Arrival Statistics. Available: http://www.hias.org/News/arrival.html. Zentralwohlfartsstelle, Statistical Data as of the end of 2003. For more detailed information see: DellaPergola, 2004. Robert J. Brym, “Jewish Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union in Canada,” East European Jewish Affairs, 2 (31) (2001), p. 35. regardless of their date of immigration to Canada (about 3,000 arrived before 1970). Given these considerations, it appears that about 25,000 “core” Jews who were born in the FSU and immigrated since 1970 lived in Canada in 2004. This figure includes their children who were born after emigration.51 This up-dated figure is a maximum guesstimate because it includes some people who reported Jewish ethnicity along with a second ethnicity. All other diaspora ex-Soviet Jewish communities are even smaller. In Israel at the start of 2004, out of the country’s Jewish population of 5.165 million there were about 0.8 million Jews and their descendants originat-ing from the FSU who arrived since 1970. According to official Israeli data, there were at this time 671,800 Jews in the country who had immigrated from the FSU in 1990–2003 (this number includes their children who were born in Israel).52 In the previous twenty years (from 1970 to 1989) 178,500 immigrants arrived in the country from the Soviet Union.53 Although some of these subse-quently emigrated and/or died, this decrease was somewhat offset by their positive vital balance. In 1970 there were about 12.6 million “core’ Jews in the world. By 2004 this number had reached approximately 13 million.54 In the same period, the number of “core” Jewish population originating in the FSU fell by more than a half million, despite the sizable accession to this “core” Jewish population in connection with migration. In 1970 the share of Soviet Jews among world Jewry was 17% whereas, as a result of these dynamics, by 2004 we guesstimate that the share of “core” Jewish population originating from the FSU among world Jewry had decreased to about 12%. During this period a significant number of these Jews changed their places of residence and now their most prominent place of concentration is Israel. Robert J. Brym, Electronic mails to Mark Tolts, November 19 and 21, 2004. Israel CBS, Statistical Abstract of Israel 2004 (Jerusalem, 2004), Table 2.25. Israel CBS, Immigration to Israel 1999 (Jerusalem, 2002), Table 2. The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World Concluding Remarks
The first results of the 2002 Russian census empirically confirmed the previ-ously predicted demographic decline of the most sizable FSU Jewish commu-nity. Analysis indicates that the process of concentration of the remaining FSU Jews in the Russian Federation is continuing and that today 62% of all FSU Jews live there. Based on the census data, we found a continuation of ethnic assimilation, which seriously accelerated with the introduction of the new in-ternal passport that does not record the holder’s ethnicity. An evaluation of data from the 2002 Russian census by area shows that about half of Russia’s Jews continue to live in the provinces outside Moscow and St. Petersburg, and that recently the share of St. Petersburg’s Jews among this total has stabilized. At the same time, between the 1994 Russian micro-census and the 2002 census, the “core” Jewish population of Dagestan fell from the fourth to the fifteenth place in the Russian Federation, and the Jewish Autonomous Oblast’ (Birobidzhan) completely dropped out of the list of the largest “core” Jewish populations. However, data of the 2002 census also clearly indicate that sizeable “core” Jewish populations remained in some of Russia’s provinces (Sverdlovsk, Samara, Nizhegorod [Nizhniy Novgorod], Rostov and Chelyabinsk). The estimates (that used the 1970 Soviet census as a baseline) show that, by the beginning of 2004, worldwide there were about 1.6 million “core” Jews who originated in the FSU and their descendants, of whom about one tenth, mostly in Israel, had become part of the “core” Jewish population in connec-tion with their migration. In 2004, in Israel there were about 0.8 million Jews and their descendants originating from the FSU (approximately half of the es-timated worldwide number) who had arrived since 1970. Possibly about one fifth of them had previously neither identified themselves nor been seen by FSU authorities as Jews. APPENDIX

Number of Jews(a) in the Russian Federation as Recorded
in the 2002 Census, by Region
Central District
Southern District
Northwest District
The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World Siberian District
Volga District
Far East District
Urals District
(a) Including those recorded as Mountain Jews, Georgian Jews, Central Asian The Largest “Core” Jewish Populations in the Russian Federation
(1989–2002 Census/Micro-census Data, by Region, Thousands)
Region Number(a) Region Number(a)(b) Region Number(c) (a) Not including those recorded as Mountain Jews, Georgian Jews, Central Asian (Buk- The Post-Soviet Jewish Population in Russia and the World (b) Medium (central) estimate based on the 5% 1994 Russian micro-census sample; in the analysis was used only data on regions where according to the estimated sampling er-ror, chances are 95 out of 100 that the actual number of the “core” Jewish population of each of these regions was not more than ±10% from the medium estimate. (c) Including those recorded as Mountain Jews, Georgian Jews, Central Asian (Bukharan) (d) Including those recorded as Mountain Jews and “Tats.” Sources: 1989 Soviet census, 1994 Russian micro-census, and 2002 Russian census.

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